How Things Have Changed

Think about 15 years ago in Major League Baseball and you're about to become a free agent and you post a season in which you hit .303 with 45 home runs and 104 runs batted in. That's what free agent JD Martinez did this past season between the Detroit Tigers and the Arizona Diamondbacks. What do you think his new contract would look like? Something in the area of 7 years and 120+ million dollars and that would be cheap, be careful if the contract isn't in the 200m+ for about 8 years or so. I can at least guarantee that Martinez would be signed by now, but in 2017/18 Martinez is still on the open market still looking for a place to call home for the foreseeable future. The main rumor has Martinez playing chicken with the Boston Red Sox over a 5 year deal; who blinks first the Sox who need a slugger or Martinez who needs a job? Teams are getting smarter, teams are becoming self-aware about having a mid-30's or later playing roaming their outfield. Martinez is 30 years old right now and when he signs a deal with whatever team he ends up on the deal will at least carry through his year 35 season and that's what teams are scared of because analytically that's when players tend to fall off.

These new front offices have changed the way things go for free agents. No longer are most teams going to hand out 7/8 year deals to players who are on the wrong side of 30. "The wrong side of 30" being exactly 30. Most teams end up regretting handing out these monstrous contracts because you end up watching players like Albert Pujols, who seems to have hit the downside of his career, battle injuries and struggle to be productive. Players though are used to being compensated for what they have done while teams are trying to pay for what a player will produce and teams have gotten better at being able to figure out what that is. This is why the stove has stayed luke warm at best because while players are looking for mega contracts teams are looking for the next 26-28 year old that when that contract is over their prime is done and there's little to no productivity left. Baseball has become more of a business than it has in the past and these new front office's are definitely using numbers to make cold cut decisions.